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San Stefanos news and views / Re: Pound-Euro 2016
« on: August 29, 2016, 05:09:43 AM »
1.17164 Today upward trend at present
Pound to Euro Exchange Rate: Forecast for the Week Ahead by Poundsterlinglive.com
The pound to euro is in a short-term uptrend after positive data from the UK dispelled myths the economy was going to lurch into a chasm after Brexit.
The GBP/EUR pair has hit highs of 1.1783 during trading in the previous week - a far cry from the 1.1457 lows of the 16th.
The pair is now in an established short-term trend higher, with peaks and troughs on the up.
As a result, we now see the pair poised to move even higher, with a break above the 1.1783 highs confirming more upside to a target at 1.1845 where the monthly pivot is situated and likely to prove a tough obstacle to further gains.
From a data perspective, in the week ahead the GBP/EUR pair, will see significant data from the Eurozone in the shape of August inflation data and out of the UK Manufacturing, Services and Construction PMIs.
Analysts at Credit Agricole see the euro as well supported, and likely to continue to be so:
“The EUR has been well supported of late. This appears to be on the back of stable ECB rate expectations and reduced sensitivity to risk sentiment. Regardless of inflation expectations as measured by 5Y inflation swaps being close to historic lows, we see limited scope for the ECB to consider a more dovish monetary policy stance any time soon. This is especially true when it comes to interest rates.” Said the French lender in a recent note.
For the pound, analyst Bo Jacobsen at Nordea Bank, is expecting a slight recovery:
“The August manufacturing PMI will show whether activity deteriorated further or recovered after the slump in July, which followed the Brexit vote in June. We expect the PMI to rise to 49.0 from July’s 48.2, which was the lowest since the financial crisis in early 2009.“
Overall the euro appears to have limited downside due to a combination of potentially lower global risk appetite from falling commodity prices, a large current account surplus and the lack of ammunition still available to the ECB with which to ease, from a purely fundamental viewpoint, therefore risks remain marginally tilted to the downside for the pair.
Pound to Euro Exchange Rate: Forecast for the Week Ahead by Poundsterlinglive.com
The pound to euro is in a short-term uptrend after positive data from the UK dispelled myths the economy was going to lurch into a chasm after Brexit.
The GBP/EUR pair has hit highs of 1.1783 during trading in the previous week - a far cry from the 1.1457 lows of the 16th.
The pair is now in an established short-term trend higher, with peaks and troughs on the up.
As a result, we now see the pair poised to move even higher, with a break above the 1.1783 highs confirming more upside to a target at 1.1845 where the monthly pivot is situated and likely to prove a tough obstacle to further gains.
From a data perspective, in the week ahead the GBP/EUR pair, will see significant data from the Eurozone in the shape of August inflation data and out of the UK Manufacturing, Services and Construction PMIs.
Analysts at Credit Agricole see the euro as well supported, and likely to continue to be so:
“The EUR has been well supported of late. This appears to be on the back of stable ECB rate expectations and reduced sensitivity to risk sentiment. Regardless of inflation expectations as measured by 5Y inflation swaps being close to historic lows, we see limited scope for the ECB to consider a more dovish monetary policy stance any time soon. This is especially true when it comes to interest rates.” Said the French lender in a recent note.
For the pound, analyst Bo Jacobsen at Nordea Bank, is expecting a slight recovery:
“The August manufacturing PMI will show whether activity deteriorated further or recovered after the slump in July, which followed the Brexit vote in June. We expect the PMI to rise to 49.0 from July’s 48.2, which was the lowest since the financial crisis in early 2009.“
Overall the euro appears to have limited downside due to a combination of potentially lower global risk appetite from falling commodity prices, a large current account surplus and the lack of ammunition still available to the ECB with which to ease, from a purely fundamental viewpoint, therefore risks remain marginally tilted to the downside for the pair.